Thursday, February 9, 2012

THIS WEEK IN POLITICAL NEWS -- 2/9/12

HONESTLY DID NOT SEE THAT COMING: On Tuesday, Rick Santorum swept all three primaries, winning Minnesota, Colorado, and the non-binding Missouri race, earning more than 40% in all three states. In Minnesota, Romney came in third, with only 17%, behind Ron Paul (27%) and Santorum (45%). The biggest upset has to have been Colorado, a state Romney won in 2008 with 60% of the vote. This year, he scored a comparatively dismal 35%, losing by five points to Santorum. It was a really, really bad night for Romney -- or, as Nate Silver put it, “about the worst results conceivable.” And that was even after his campaign tried to set expectations absurdly low the morning of the voting, in a memo sent to reporters. I turn the analysis of the memo over to my friend Shebby: “It screams insecurity even as it attempts to project confidence. There are lots of good lines, but I think this is my favorite: ‘Of course, there is no way for any nominee to win first place in every single contest — John McCain lost 19 states in 2008, and we expect our opponents to notch a few wins too.’ McCain ended up running a train wreck campaign against Obama and that's the guy they are channeling? So Romney is competing for the right to get creamed in the general election?” Good point, Shebby!

But Romney wasn’t the only one who had a bad night. In all three states that voted, Gingrich won exactly one county, Bent County in southeast Colorado, where he netted 25 votes -- that’s votes, not percent -- to best Santorum’s 22 votes. Then again, if Gingrich’s real goal is to defeat Romney at all costs, he is certainly helping: check out how Romney’s favorability ratings have nose-dived since Gingrich started his all-out assault in early January.


9TH CIRCUIT STRIKES DOWN PROP 8: On Tuesday, the 9th Circuit ruled that Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in California, violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution. It was a very narrow decision, limited to the unusual facts of the case: The court held that where gay couples had been legally allowed to marry (after the state Supreme Court ruled that denying them that right violated the state constitution), the taking away of that right constituted the Equal Protection violation. In other words, the 9th Circuit ruled that singling out gays as a disfavored group from whom to take away a right was unconstitutional; the court did not reach the broader question whether denying gays the right to marry -- period -- violated the Constitution. This narrow decision has disappointed some. “Today, the most liberal judges in the most liberal state on the most liberal appeals court had an opportunity to make history. Instead, they opted to do far less,” wrote Slate’s Dahlia Lithwick. On the other hand, she noted that the narrow grounds of the decision make it less likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case, leaving in place legal gay marriage in the largest state in the country. Alternatively, if the Court does accept cert and hear the appeal, Garret Epps writes that the opinion “is written to survive Supreme Court review, and for that reason, it is written for an audience of one: Justice Anthony M. Kennedy.”
Despite the narrowness of the holding, its language was still stirring in many places. Here are some of the best quotes from the 80+ page opinion [pdf]:
  • "Proposition 8 serves no purpose other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California, and to officially reclassify their relationships and families as inferior to those of opposite-sex couples. The Constitution simply does not allow for laws of this sort."
  • On the word "marriage": "A rose by any other name may smell as sweet, but to the couple desiring to enter into a committed lifelong relationship, a marriage by the name of 'registered domestic partnership' does not."
  • "Here, the argument that withdrawing the designation of 'marriage' from same-sex couples could on its own promote the strength or stability of opposite-sex marital relationships lacks any...footing in reality."
  • "Just as the criminalization of homosexual conduct is an invitation to subject homosexual persons to discrimination both in the public and in the private spheres, so too does the elimination of the right to use the official designation of 'marriage' for the relationships of committed same-sex couples send a message that gays and lesbians are of lesser worth as a class--that they enjoy a lesser societal status."


Ted Olsen, half of the legal dream team that litigated this case, disagreed with the idea that the decision was a narrow one. “Actually I think it’s a very broad decision,” he told Rachel Maddow on Tuesday night. He noted that the 9th Circuit panel stressed “that there was no justification, there was no rational basis to single out gay and lesbian individuals in this country and take away rights from them or to deny rights from them. The court went through every argument that had been made on the other side and systematically dismantled every one of those arguments. So while the court focused on the peculiarities of California, the principles it articulated are quite broad and very compelling.” Olsen expressed confidence that, not only would the Supreme Court uphold the opinion.

GETTING A HOLD OF THIS CONTRACEPTION STORY: Late last month, the Obama administration announced that, under the health reform bill, most health insurance plans would have to cover contraception. “The rule includes an exemption for certain ‘religious employers,’ including houses of worship....A religious employer cannot qualify for the exemption if it employs or serves large numbers of people of a different faith, as many Catholic hospitals, universities and social service agencies do.” Given that 98 percent of American women -- including 98 percent of Catholic women -- use contraceptives, that 28 states currently have almost identical rules requiring coverage of contraceptives, and that the rule is insanely, broadly popular, I didn’t think much of it except that it was a long-time coming and good on the Obama White House. So of course, cue the conservative freak-out. The Conference of Catholic Bishops was in full-out meltdown mode -- though, to me, it’s hard to take a group of men who, by definition, have never been faced with the prospect of impregnating anyone all that seriously on the question of universal access to contraception. But some people do! Like congressional Republicans (and, sadly some Democrats), who now have vowed to undo the policy with legislation. In the meantime, the Catholic Bishops aren’t just insisting on broader religious exceptions; they want every single employer to be able to cut off contraception funding from the health plans they offer, just in case some boss-man’s “conscience” is somehow offended by the prospect of people being safe and responsible (and yes, sexual) adults. Rachel Maddow had a great segment on this, reminding viewers that opposing contraception is not a winning issue, to say the least. Here’s David Frum, trying to make the same point to his fellow conservatives. I think this thoughtful defense of the White House policy really hits every point, and, to my mind, ends the debate.

GOOD NEWS -- Washington Passes Gay Marriage Bill: By a 55-43 vote on Wednesday, the Washington state house passed a same-sex marriage bill, following the senate’s earlier approval of the bill. The governor has promised to sign it promptly. Freedom to Marry reports on one potential snag: “However, opponents of the freedom to marry have until June 6th to turn in the necessary signatures to file for a referendum that would put marriage on the ballot this coming November. Should they file a referendum with a sufficient number of verified signatures, the law would not be implemented until after the election.”

Fun Video of the Week: To continue last week’s theme, here’s Michelle Obama challenging Jimmy Fallon to a five-round fitness challenge. Make sure to watch to the very end, where Jimmy talks about meeting Michelle and how insanely cool she is.
Bonus Video of the Week: Ellen DeGeneres responds to the anti-gay critics who have blasted JC Penny for signing up Ellen as a spokesperson. To me, the most incredible thing about this video is watching a full studio audience of what appear to be middle-aged, middle-class suburban women cheer their faces off for the Prop 8 decision and for JC Penny’s refusal to back down. It’s pretty hard not to think that Ellen DeGeneres, just by being who she is and by having a super mainstream TV show, has accomplished an enormous amount of unacknowledged work for the cause of equality in this country.
Double Bonus Video of the Week: Justice Sonia Sotomayor solves cases on the street -- Sesame Street!

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